Tag Archives: forecast

Telecoms Buyers Dial Up VoIP Services

Forecasts from the global analyst firm Ovum reveal that OTT VoIP will cost the global telecoms industry $479bn in lost cumulative revenues by 2020, which represents 6.9% of cumulative total voice revenues.

However, new research Future of Voice provides some reassurance to operators that are fearful of the demise of traditional telephony. It suggests that although revenues continue to fall, voice traffic is simply shifting rather than collapsing. Carefully targeted price increases are expected to be commonplace as operators try to maintain their revenues.

Yet, Ovum believes that a focus on creating cloud-oriented telephony apps, and efforts to maintain the relevance of telephone numbers will ensure that operators have a place in the future communications landscape.

“Where operators have seen voice telephony as a service without a future, they have chosen to compete on price in an effort to eke out any remaining revenues from the market,” said Jeremy Green, principal telecoms strategy analyst at Ovum.

“However, taking such a pessimistic view obscures some important commercial realities and opportunities in the voice telephony market.”

Taking these factors into consideration the complete collapse of telephony revenues is not likely, according to Ovum, but the long-term trend is towards a richer and more complex communications environment in which voice serves a different function and telephony plays a smaller role. Ovum’s research shows that users have been heavily influenced by their experiences with OTT players’ services, and now expect traditional operators to provide content, relationships, and history within a service, irrespective of device or access method.

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SaaS Revenues To Top $14 Billion

Global sales of software as a service (SaaS) are rising steadily with increased adoption of SaaS and with total worldwide revenues expected to top $22 billion by 2015.

According to the latest market report from analyst firm, Gartner, SaaS revenue is forecast to reach $14.5 billion this year, a 17.9 percent increase from 2011 revenue of $12.3 billion, with healthy growth through to 2015 when revenue is forecast to reach $22.1 billion.

“After more than a decade of use, adoption of SaaS continues to grow and evolve regionally within the enterprise application markets,” said Sharon Mertz, research director at Gartner. “Increasing familiarity with the SaaS model, continued oversight on IT budgets, the growth of platform as a service (PaaS) developer communities and interest in cloud computing are now driving adoption forward.”

Gartner reports that, although growing interest has been observed in vertical-specific software, the most widespread use is still characterised by horizontal applications with common processes, among distributed virtual workforces and within Web 2.0 activities.

“The top issues encountered when deploying SaaS vary by region,” said Mertz. According to Mertz, limited flexibility of customisation and limited integration to existing systems are the primary reasons in North America. “In EMEA, network instability is the issue most frequently encountered, whereas longer-than-expected deployments are the top issue in Asia/Pacific. Vendors are more aggressively pursuing SaaS buyers outside traditional markets by offering local-language availability, forming alliances and constructing data centres to accommodate local requirements.”

SaaS revenue in Asia/Pacific – including in Australia – is on pace to reach $934.1 million in 2012, up from $730.9 million in 2011, Gartner reports.

Gartner says that, overall, SaaS adoption in Asia/Pacific has been fragmented, and Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) is a combination of mature markets, such as Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, and emerging markets, including China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. “SaaS financial (accounting) applications are most popular, particularly in China and India. The next-highest SaaS usage is for ERP functions — such as expense management and employee performance management — followed by office suites, email and the CRM sales function, Mertz says.

While the Japanese economy is still struggling and IT budgets are limited, Gartner says that the demand for SaaS solutions is increasing due to the country’s lower implementation costs and faster deployment times. SaaS revenue in Japan is forecast to reach $495.2 million in 2012, up from $427 million in 2011, with Gartner forecasting that growth of the SaaS market in Japan through 2015 will be led by CRM and email/groupware, which already have actual demand.

According to Gartner, North America, specifically the US, currently represents the largest opportunity for SaaS, and it is the most mature of the regional markets. North American SaaS software revenue is forecast to total $9.1 billion in 2012, up from $7.8 billion in 2011. Consistent with other regions, Gartner says North America shows the highest SaaS deployments in expense management, financials, email and office suites, and with use of Web conferencing higher in North America than in other regions, in part because of a highly distributed workforce.

In Western Europe, SaaS revenue is forecast by Gartner to surpass $3.2 billion in 2012, up from $2.7 billion in 2011, while SaaS revenue in Eastern Europe is projected to reach $169.4 million, up from $135.5 million last year.

Gartner analysts say SaaS adoption in EMEA is currently running at two speeds – in Western Europe, the most developed subregion, SaaS offerings and adoption rates are rapidly increasing as North America-based SaaS vendors further penetrate the region and the number of local European SaaS vendors increases. In Eastern Europe and the Middle East and Africa, which are small and emerging markets overall, Gartner says the potential opportunity for SaaS is more in the “medium to long term due to ongoing infrastructure challenges” that vendors need to overcome if they are to be successful in these regions.

Author: Peter Dinham
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Virtualization Top CIO Priority

Virtualization and the server consolidation that it delivers will be the top priority for chief information officers in 2012, according to a survey by the research firm IDC. Savings from server consolidation will be invested in new IT initiatives such as cloud computing, mobility, data analytics, and use of social media for business purposes.

When CIOs were asked by IDC to name their top three IT priorities for this year, nearly 40 percent of them picked virtualization and server consolidation, more than any other area of IT. After virtualization, investment in cloud services came in second, followed by collaboration tools, business analytics, and the consolidation of application portfolios.

While IDC ranks CIO priorities, another research firm, Gartner, scaled back its IT spending increase forecast for 2012 to 3.7% growth, down from an earlier forecast of 4.6%.

Virtualization and server consolidation, along with cloud computing, are all part of a wider enterprise goal of reducing IT complexity, said David McNally, IT executive advisor at IDC, in a Webcast Tuesday. And savings from server consolidation will be reinvested in four main “pillars” of IT, he said: cloud; mobile, data analytics, and social business.

“The cost savings that have been realized from virtualization and cloud services have been significant and they are being consumed by next-generation technologies and the four pillars,” McNally said. Beginning in 2012, IDC sees IT moving from a focus on productivity and cost savings to a focus on delivering innovation in what it calls the “intelligent economy.” According to the survey, 67% of CIOs see themselves as no longer the chief information officer but the “chief innovation officer.”

“We think that CIOs are well prepared for this moment. They have experience leading in this transformation and they are ready to step up,” said Meredith Whalen, the U.S.-based senior vice president of Insights and Vertical Markets Research at IDC.

The move to reduce complexity through such practices as virtualization is one of 10 predictions IDC is making for 2012, based on survey results. Some of the others: continued efforts to align IT and business goals; hiring IT staff that bring business skills as well as technical skills to the job; expanded use of social media beyond just by marketing into all areas of the enterprise; and further development of mobile device management in an era when employees seek to use their own personal smartphones and tablets on the corporate network.

Enterprises will also make more of an investment in “big data” analytics in 2012, IDC predicts, to analyze the petabytes of data their businesses generate in order to make business decisions.

“The final bricks in the foundation for the intelligent enterprise will be laid in 2012 in a number of key industries,” IDC states, mentioning health care, utilities, and retail as industries making the most of analytics technology. Analytics jumped to number four on the list of CIO IT priorities for 2012, from ninth place in the previous survey.

IDC notes that the amount of data generated by enterprises is expected to grow by 48% this year and that 90% of it will be unstructured data.

Author: Robert Mullins
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Public Cloud Revenue to Rise 21.6% by 2014

Cloud computing revenue in the US public sector is expected to grow by 21.6 percent over the next few years, according to the latest survey by International Data Corporation (IDC).

The report, entitled U.S. Public IT Cloud Services by Industry Sector: More Details on the Opportunity, shows that from 2009 to 2014 public cloud revenue in the US will grow significantly from $11.1 billion to $29.5 billion.

The main areas that will employ cloud computing are professional services, communications and media, and discrete and process manufacturing markets. Professional services will be the primary driver of growth, due to a large volume of small to medium size businesses that require software-as-a-service.

The report found that the services and distribution sector makes the most revenue for cloud computing and that it is expected to more than double from its current intake of $3 billion to $8.5 billion in 2014.

Currently applications make up a large portion of revenue in this area, amounting to half of cloud revenue in 2009. As the sector grows, however, it will become less dependant on this and its market share will drop to one third. At the same time, infrastructure software is expected to increase to provide 22 percent of revenue.

Some public sector areas will be restricted in how they can apply cloud services, due to additional regulations, privacy concerns and security fears. These mainly include government, banking and healthcare sectors, all of which will also have a severely curtailed budget due to cutbacks.

Despite this, the potential for healthcare is huge and IDC forecasts a compound annual growth rate of nearly 23 percent by 2014, which will see a healthy increase on its currently small five percent market share. Collaboration applications will be the primary area where cloud computing will be employed in healthcare.

While these figures apply to the public cloud sector, it’s highly likely that the private cloud arena will see similar high growth over the next few years. A previous IDC report last year suggested that private cloud revenue would jump from $7.3 billion in 2009 to $11.8 billion in 2014, which is a slightly lower rate of growth than the public cloud, albeit still significant.

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Do You Know How Much Your IT Costs?

For years, enterprise IT departments could be fuzzy about the costs of individual IT services and applications, but tight budgets and the relative clarity of cloud computing costs have forced CIOs into sharp focus.

This need for specifics on IT costs has fueled a market for IT financial management software, which helps CIOs figure out how to budget for and assign dollar figures to services that span hardware, software and personnel.

While the economy has necessitated cost containment, the availability of on-demand computing capacity, storage and applications from cloud providers has intensified the pressure on internal IT to be more transparent – and more competitive – about costs.

“In the past, if you didn’t have good visibility into your IT costs, it probably would be frustrating to business stakeholders. But what could they really do?” says Barbara Gomolski, managing vice president at Gartner. “Now, if you don’t have good visibility into what it costs to provide storage or network connectivity or e-mail, the business stakeholders can easily go out to the external market and say, ‘Well, so-and-so can provide it for $5 per month per mailbox, and I think we ought to do that.’”

With a better understanding of spending, IT teams can begin to satisfy increasingly tech-savvy business managers who want to know more than simply how much is spent on, say, desktops. Today’s business managers want to know what it costs to provide enterprise mobility, for instance, and they want to see the big picture. They’re asking for cost models that take into account hardware, software, labor and maintenance costs, plus distinguish between different service levels and deployment scope, Gomolski says.

At First Horizon National Corp., business leaders from the company’s banking entities were hungry for more detailed IT cost data. “We were having a difficult time explaining to our business segments why their IT costs were growing,” recalls Ann Fite, finance director at the Memphis, Tenn., financial services company. “Technology can sometimes seem like a black hole to people who aren’t involved with it.”

First Horizon invested in IT financial management software from Digital Fuel, which allows the bank’s users to see a bottom-line tally of how much it costs to run a particular application, such as a deposit or loan application, plus a detailed breakdown of the expenses. This helps the business leaders understand the costs of requests for new features or regulatory changes, for instance, compared to hardware and software maintenance, Fite says.

First Horizon has only been using Digital Fuel’s applications for a couple of months, but already “we’ve had a lot of success making application costs more transparent to the lines of business,” Fite says. Going forward, First Horizon plans to use the software to identify redundant application development requests, for instance, and to run analyses of proposed IT initiatives to determine their cost effectiveness.

Smarter spending

Overall, the trend toward greater visibility into IT costs is a good thing for the industry. It means businesses are getting smarter about technology investments, Gomolski says.

“Organizations that have made the investment [in IT financial management] are able to recognize areas where they’re currently spending money but should not be – services that are underutilized or cost disproportionately more than the value they deliver,” Gomolski says. “We’re finally learning how to make our investments a little bit more intelligently.”

Getting to full IT cost transparency is no easy feat, however.

For starters, IT managers are expected to pay more attention to budget and planning practices — adjusting budgets according to actual costs and revised operational targets, for instance — which isn’t a traditional strength of the tech-centric IT professional.

“If you come to a storage line manager and tell him that he has to start doing budget re-forecasting every month, he’s going to look for a tool that does it automatically,” says Yisrael Dancziger, president and CEO of Digital Fuel.

With the right tools, IT budgets can become dynamic resources that reflect actual usage costs and allow for automated adjustments (as revenue targets and headcount change, for instance) rather than static documents that are quickly outdated. The ability to do fact-based budgeting, based both on the demand of the business units as well as historical metrics, makes a big difference, Dancziger says.

Digital Fuel makes such a tool – an entire suite of tools, delivered via a software-as-a-service model – as do other IT finance specialists such as Apptio and ClearCost. Larger IT management vendors also offer financial management software, including BMC (which acquired ITM Software in 2008), CA and HP.

The tools are designed to consolidate IT financial metrics and perform functions such as budgeting, cost modeling, chargeback and vendor management. They’ve been around since 2000, but early options were immature and didn’t cover the breadth of IT functions required, says Gartner’s Gomolski. Now they’ve matured. “Tools today are able to provide a more end-to-end view,” she says.

For First Horizon, the SaaS model is a good fit, since it’s a non-core application and the hosted model allowed for a fast deployment, Fite says. “The most cost-efficient avenue for us was to allow Digital Fuel to run this application and for us to piggyback off their expertise,” she says.

Digital Fuel’s Dancziger says potential customers are comfortable with the SaaS model, though they insist on getting the details about the company’s security infrastructure.

“We’ve had to invest a lot in security capabilities in order to be able to convince companies like Deutsche Bank, Capital One and IBM to put their general ledger expense information into a solution like this. But they’re doing it,” Dancziger says.

Superseding spreadsheets

For many companies, financial management software is a replacement for scores of spreadsheets. The software does the heavy lifting – collecting structured and unstructured data from all over the enterprise, cleaning it, and normalizing it so it can be analyzed. Standard reports make it easy to view broad metrics such as IT spend as a percentage of company revenue, as well as more technically detailed reports such as a cost comparison of Windows, Linux and Unix servers, broken down by the hour.

Having that kind of data enables IT teams to more clearly articulate how tech investments translate to business value.

“It’s about more than just understanding costs and reporting those costs,” notes Jeff Day, director of marketing at Apptio. “It’s about budgeting, forecasting and cost optimization. It’s about helping IT finance groups and the CIO run the business of IT.”

Armed with better data and a clear business rationale, IT is better positioned to get the green light on proposed projects. “A CIO can talk the language of the business and say, ‘here’s how much this technology is going to cost to do, here’s how much it’s going to cost to maintain year after year, and here’s the business value that it’s going to bring, in terms of productivity, increased revenue or customer loyalty,’” Day says. “When a CIO can talk in those terms, it shifts the role of IT from just a cost center to a strategic partner to the business.”

IT financial management software also can help IT users identify areas where they can reduce costs — servers that are good candidates for consolidation or virtualization; applications that might be ready for retirement; opportunities for tiered storage; and support contracts that might not be worth continuing.

“This is not just about cost accounting. This is about looking at the cost vs. the value and helping the business to say, ‘this is not a good way to spend our money,’” Gomolski says.

IT often gets nowhere when it suggests shutting down a legacy application without providing numbers to back up the suggestion. By making it clear how much you’re spending and the amount of resources an application is consuming, IT can turn the tables and put the question to the business person, Gomolski says.

“‘You tell me: Are you getting enough value to justify that?’ A lot of times they’ll say ‘turn it off.’”

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CIOs Will Flock to the Cloud in the Coming Months

Cloud computing will be a hit with chief information officers (CIOs) this year as adoption will happen quicker than expected, an analyst firm has claimed.

Just three per cent of CIOs currently have the majority of IT running in the cloud or on software-as-a-service technologies, but over the next four years CIOs expect this to rise to 43 per cent, a Gartner survey showed.

“CIOs and IT have been boxed in between modest budget growth and growing legacy requirements,” said Mark McDonald, group vice president and head of research for Gartner Executive Programs.

“New lighter-weight technologies – such as cloud computing, software as a service (SaaS), and social networks – and IT models enable the CIO to redefine IT, giving it a greater focus on growth and strategic impact. These are two things that are missing from many organisations.”

Rob Lovell, chief executive (CEO) of cloud services provider Thinkgrid, said the Gartner report only confirmed what his company had seen in the market.

“Companies are asking themselves why they should continue with the status quo, making upfront capital expenditure investments and carrying all the risks associated with large scale IT implementations,” Lovell said.

“Ultimately, the findings show that the cloud model has made its mark and is fundamentally changing the way we all access and pay for IT.”

The Gartner report also indicated CIOs’ IT budgets will remain flat across the globe.

In more positive results, the number of those dealing with budget rises in 2011 outnumbered those reporting a cut by almost three-to-one.

Virgin Media Business’ executive director for commercial Andrew McGrath said he felt there were reasons to be cheerful about the coming year.

“IT departments remain the unsung heroes of many organisations. Although budgets may remain flat in 2011, the good news is that advances in technology, such as cloud computing, are really starting to help unburden IT professionals from the small tasks that can hold back innovation, enabling them to focus on the bigger picture,” McGrath said.

“2011 is looking to be an exciting and liberating year for CIOs, where advances in technology and creative uses of IT will provide the catalyst for real business change.”

A recent survey from PeoplePerHour.com showed small and medium enterprises were still baffled by cloud technology.

Three quarters of the respondents (74 per cent) said they didn’t use cloud computing and 43 per cent of those did not even know what the term meant.

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IDC Predicts $1.6B Cloud Market in 2011

The cloud will be discussed everywhere in 2011, but how much money actually is there in the cloud business? In a live webcast event this week, analyst firm IDC’s Research Vice-President Cindy Borovick forecast a $1.6 billion cloud market in 2011.

Borovick’s forecast is not for the entire cloud services ecosystem, but rather is a subset of IDC’s data center and networking forecast. The $1.6 billion figure is IDC’s projection for network equipment revenues used to power both public and private cloud deployments in 2011.

“Cloud is the prevailing IT trend of the decade,” Borovick said. “We really see it as being integral to IT deployments and it’s no longer just a buzzword.”

Borovick noted that cloud infrastructure provides a reduced cost of ownership and enables IT to have a more dynamic response to the business. She added that enterprises get a better allocation of resources with cloud deployments.

Different industries will likely have different adoption rates for the cloud. Borovick noted that highly regulated industries are going to be less willing to trust a cloud provider. That said, she added that the pressure to reduce cost will encourage adoption, even for regulated industries.

“For 2011, we think we’ll see even more announcements from suppliers and IT network managers will be much more ready to look to see how they can deploy the network in support of cloud deployments,” Borovick said.

Looking beyond cloud infrastructure, IDC is also seeing growth in virtualization form factors, though the numbers are still small. Borovick noted that in 2010, IDC forecast that virtual network service form factors would ship during the year. For the application delivery market, Borovick said that the opportunity for virtual form factors was approximately $40 million in 2010.

Multiple vendors including Riverbedand Blue Coat announced new virtual WAN optimization and application delivery offerings during 2010.

“We’re starting to see enterprises decide how it is that they want to deploy virtual network services,” Borovick said.

In terms of who is using virtual form factors today, Borovick noted that cloud service providers as well as smaller data centers are more willing to look at the virtual form factor for a network service

“Additionally there are intricacies in terms of placement in the network and that really dictates where we’ll see virtual form factors emerge,” Borovick said.

For 2011, IDC is forecasting more unified communications applications to take advantage of virtual form factors.

“Networking vendors increasingly will look at how they need to have support for virtual network services,” Borovick said. “Best practices will emerge and we will see an uptick in deployments for virtualization.”

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Complexity of Cloud Computing a Worry for Business Owners

A lack of proper understanding appears to be dissuading many small businesses from investing in cloud computing, it has been reported.

According to Clodagh Murphy, director at Eclipse, it is not so much cost issues which put off such enterprises – rather the apparent complexity of the technology.

She said that cloud computing must be explained to business owners in plain English which they can fully understand.

Ms Murphy added that when embracing the cloud, the initial cost outlay is actually quite small, meaning hosted services can be highly beneficial for small companies.

However, she suggested that they will be reluctant to invest in technology which could make their life more difficult, even just during the deployment process.

“Small businesses at the moment are focused on survival to a certain extent, and growing their own businesses,” Ms Murphy commented.

“Taking the risk of investing in new technology won’t be at the forefront of their minds.”

IT analyst Ovum recently claimed that security, cloud services and sustainability will be three of the most important trends in enterprise IT in 2011.

Cloud computing will continue to grow steadily in popularity during 2011, the company forecast.

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